For immediate release April 2, 2007

Contact: Sue Stetler 313-961-4266

SEMCOG releases economic and demographic forecast
for Southeast Michigan through 2035

SEMCOG, the Southeast Michigan Council of Governments, released its economic and demographic forecast for Southeast Michigan through 2035 at its General Assembly meeting Thursday evening at Cobo Center in Detroit.

Two important factors continue to challenge Southeast Michigan's economic and demographic future. The region is 680 percent more concentrated in auto manufacturing than the national economy — a gross disproportion and the main reason why it is struggling. The Big Three domestic automakers have seen their share of U.S. light-vehicle sales decline from 73 percent in 1995 to 53 percent in 2006. As a result, Southeast Michigan has lost 128,000 jobs since 2000; SEMCOG's forecast shows that the region will not begin to gain total jobs until 2010. How does Southeast Michigan survive? The region needs to diversify its economy, make a concerted effort to invest in other activities that show promise for future growth and prosperity, and invest in a more highly skilled workforce.

The other major factor that will affect the region in the long-term is the aging of the population. By 2035, Southeast Michigan will have 651,000 more people 65 or older and 296,000 fewer people of prime working age (25-64). This trend will also be felt in the U.S. as a whole. For the region, the percentage 65 or older will increase from 12 to 24 percent by 2035; for the U.S., it will go from 12 to 20 percent. How will these changes impact Southeast Michigan? After 2015, because of decreasing numbers in the 25-64 age group, job growth will be constrained to an annual average of 0.3 percent. The one sector with strong growth will be health care and social services. This is a direct result of the larger numbers of people 65 or older who will be in need of health care. Another major impact of an aging population will be on housing needs, which are already shifting, with more condominiums for empty-nest households and, in coming years, more assisted-living facilities.

The report, A Region in Turbulence and Transition: The Economic and Demographic Outlook for Southeast Michigan Through 2035, details the forecast. Please call SEMCOG Information Services (313-961-4266) for a copy.

View the Turbulence and Transition report in PDF

View the Summary of the report in PDF

SEMCOG is a regional planning partnership of governmental units serving 4.9 million people in the seven-county region of Southeast Michigan striving to enhance the region's quality of life.

Local Governments Advancing Southeast Michigan

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SEMCOG is a regional planning partnership of governmental units serving 4.9 million people in the seven-county region of Southeast Michigan striving to enhance the region's quality of life.

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