Data Connections
October 2009 

Welcome to SEMCOG’s Data Connections. This newsletter will be one of the ways SEMCOG's Data Center will communicate with the Data Affiliation Group, updating you on Data Center projects, reports, and forecast work, and sharing important data from outside agencies or other SEMCOG program areas. This newsletter will also serve as a venue to request your input or assistance on data development.

We plan to e-mail this newsletter quarterly, with possible additional releases when there are pressing data issues. We hope you will find it informative and an adequate replacement of our quarterly Data Center Advisory (DAC) meetings. We welcome your input and would be happy to include news from you that would be helpful to other members. If you prefer not to receive future editions of Data Connections, or if you have ideas, comments, or suggestions to improve the newsletter, contact Janet Mocadlo, SEMCOG Data Center Senior Planning Analyst.

Local Government Fiscal Capacity
SEMCOG updated the region’s fiscal capacity data with recently released taxable values and State Equalized Values (SEV) for 2009.  A new SEMCOG Quick Facts, Community Fiscal Capacities – 2009, preliminarily forecasts the change in taxable value and SEV at the regional-level.  Also included is a regional and community-level analysis of the change in taxable value and SEV between 2008 and 2009. 

Yearly Percent Change in Home Price, SEV, and Taxable Value, 2000-2009, and Preliminary Forecast of SEV and Taxable Value, 2010-2011, Southeast Michigan
 

Contact: Brian Parthum, SEMCOG Data Center Senior Planning Analyst. 

Detroit Analysis
SEMCOG Data Center staff had the opportunity to assist the Citizens Research Council in conducting an analysis of land use and socio-economic trends in the City of Detroit. The City of Detroit and Detroit Renaissance (now Business Leaders for Michigan) requested this review by CRC as part of a fiscal analysis. SEMCOG provided 2008 data on current land use and condition, along with population and employment projections, all by city planning cluster. Among the findings were that Detroit’s population has gone from 32 percent of the region’s total in 1970 to 17 percent in 2008. Meanwhile, the city’s share of employment has dropped from 38 percent in 1970 to 12 percent in 2008. Our analysis of the city’s current land use found more than 93,000 completely vacant parcels that were previously developed in the past, along with more than 10,000 parcels with vacant buildings. SEMCOG shared this information directly with the Mayor Bing’s office in addition to making it available to CRC. 

Current Land Development Status by Parcel, 2008, City of Detroit 

 
An earlier version of the similar study, Redevelopment Capacity in the City of Detroit is available at SEMCOG’s Web site. 

Contact: Jeff Nutting, SEMCOG Data Center Lead Planning Analyst. 

2008 Land Use Data
Data Center staff has been coding the region’s 2008 digital parcels with detailed land use codes based on queries of 2008 assessing data and manual inspections using 2008 aerial imagery. The first phase of this parcel-based land use coding is nearing completion and we anticipate a completed regional parcel-based land use data set that can be used by our members in early 2010.

Current and accurate land use data is not only an essential input for SEMCOG’s 2040 forecast, but is also a basic data set used for countless other planning activities. Most recently, we provided detailed parcel-based land use data to a working group made up of members from the Detroit Water and Sewerage Department (DWSD), a number of the DWSD’s consultants, and SEMCOG Environmental Planning staff are evaluating a potential combined sewer overflow (CSO) project in northwestern Detroit. By using parcel-based land use data the working group is able to gain a better understanding of impervious surfaces that add to surface runoff in the area.  The land use data was also classified by owner to help locate potential properties that may be able to use funds aimed at implementing different green infrastructure techniques (i.e., green roofs, pervious pavement, downspout disconnects, vegetated swales) to lessen the surface runoff potentially headed for the storm sewers in this part of the region.

SEMCOG Data Center is always looking for ways to help members and the region with timely and accurate data that can be used in regional and sub-regional planning activities.

Contact: Andy Cain, Data Center Senior Planning Analyst.

American Community Survey (ACS)
In September, the Census Bureau released its 2008 ACS one-year estimates. What does it say for Southeast Michigan? The region lost 45,000 people and 22,000 households between 2007 and 2008. Much of the population loss in the region is driven by Wayne County, which lost 35,000 persons between 2007 and 2008. While the total population decreased in the region, the number of persons age 55 years or older increased by 23,000, a two percent increase.

ACS also shows that housing vacancy rate has increased from 11 percent in 2007 to 13 percent in 2008. Among counties, Livingston has the lowest residential vacancy rate of 7.6 percent and Wayne County has the highest of 17.9 percent in 2008.

Median household income in the region decreased by about $2,000. Washtenaw County witnessed the highest decrease of $5,500 in its median household income and Monroe County had the lowest decrease of $1,300.

With significant overhaul anticipated to the nation’s health care policy, health insurance is a major topic that is of great importance these days. ACS, for the first time, released estimates on health insurance coverage. Eighty eight percent of region’s population is covered by a health insurance policy, higher than national average and same as state average. Data are currently available by three age groups: 95 percent children (age 0-17), 84 percent of adults aged 18-64, and 99 percent of seniors (65 and older) in the region are covered by either a private or public health insurance.

In late October, the Census Bureau will release 2006-2008 ACS three-year estimates for places with population 20,000 or more. SEMCOG provides links to the latest ACS data through its Community Profiles. These links will be updated for accessing 2006-2008 three-year estimates as the data become available. In addition, we will also post Quick Facts highlighting the 2008 American Community Survey data for Southeast Michigan. Please stay tuned!

Contact: Sirisha Uppalapati, SEMCOG Data Center Planning Analyst. 

Census 2010
A new Census Bureau report, Uses of Population and Income Statistics in Federal Funds Distribution - With a Focus on Census Bureau Data, should be helpful in promoting the 2010 Census and explaining its importance. The report found that approximately $446 billion was distributed on the basis of Census Bureau data in 2007, or about $1,500 per person. 

With Census 2010 rapidly approaching, SEMCOG continues to work with Census Bureau, the state, and local governments to promote and prepare for the Census. SEMCOG will provide monthly residential building permit information to the Census Bureau under the “New Construction Program” to make sure any housing built in the remainder of 2009 receives a Census form. We are also helping interested communities provide address information from their assessor rolls to add any missing addresses before the 2010 forms are mailed out.

Contact: Jeff Nutting, SEMCOG Data Center Lead Planning Analyst. 

2040 Forecast Work Update
The Data Center is working on the next regional forecast, which will provide population, household, job, and land use data by small area from 2008 to 2040. Staff is completing creation of the 2008 base year socio-economic and land input data, based in large part on the assessing and parcels data we received from communities and counties throughout the region, along with employment data from the State of Michigan.

For the 2040 Forecast, SEMCOG is adopting a new version of the forecast model, UrbanSim, based on land parcels, a significant improvement over the grid-cell model used in the 2035 Forecast. In addition to preparing the 2008 base year data, we have been testing the new parcel-based model using Washtenaw County data as part of a pilot project to evaluate the model’s performance. We will continue to calibrate the model based on output from running the pilot, and expect a full regional model to be fully calibrated and producing output by the end of the year.

Contact Guangyu Li, SEMCOG Data Center Planning Analyst. 

Data Center Staff News
Peter McNally and his wife, Lisa, welcomed their first child on September 15, 2009. Emily Clare McNally weighed 7 pounds, 8 ounces and measured 20 1/4 inches. Everyone is doing wonderful. Congratulations Peter and Lisa!

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SEMCOG is a regional planning partnership of governmental units serving 4.9 million people in the seven-county region of Southeast Michigan striving to enhance the region's quality of life. 

SEMCOG. . . Equipping local government leaders for the future
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